Arctic NWPModels
The lack of surface observations as input means that the analyses used to create the initial conditions for weather models are not robust. All global forecast models include the Arctic in their domains, but the data paucity at high latitudes means that the model predictions have only limited usefulness. Issues with model performance include predicting the locations of high amplitude ridges and troughs as well as resolving radiation fluxes and turbulence in the boundary layer. Arctic clouds—particularly stratus—are notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate in current weather prediction models.
Global models include the NCEP GFS and its ensembles, the Canadian GEM model and its ensembles, ECMWF models and their ensembles, UKMET, GSM, and NOGAPS.
Dedicated polar models include the polar version of the MM5 (PSU/NCAR Fifth-generation Mesoscale Model), which is used for both synoptic and climate studies. This model has been shown to perform well in comparisons with observations over Greenland, though a slight moist bias is seen near the surface. A polar version of WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting Model) also exists and has been tested over the Arctic and AntArctic. Both these models are run routinely only for operations in Antarctica.